The U.S. is facing a historic cattle shortage that is pushing beef prices to record highs.
Years of drought throughout the Midwest have degraded pastures, forcing ranchers to sell more of their cattle rather than retain heifers for breeding. El Niño is currently bringing some relief, though dry conditions persist in parts of the country’s ranching regions.
But drought has only accelerated a decades-long trend.
The U.S. has lost roughly 4 in 10 ranches since the late 1970s, according to the USDA's latest agricultural census. More than 1 million operations raised beef cows in 1978, compared with about 622,000 in 2022.
Groups like R-CALF, which represents independent ranchers, point to free trade agreements like NAFTA and decades of industry consolidation as key factors that have pushed ranchers out of business.
In the 1980s, a wave of mergers and acquisitions left four companies controlling more than 80% of beef processing. Today, those companies are known as the Big Four: Tyson Foods, Cargill, National Beef and JBS.
Meatpacker consolidation reshaped the entire cattle industry, favoring larger operations and economies of scale. Today, just 10 meatpacking plants process nearly half of all U.S. beef. Feedlots have grown larger, while smaller operations have shut down. For ranchers, fewer feedlots mean fewer buyers for their cattle.
The industry has responded to the low cattle inventory by producing heavier animals that can yield more meat, but some have questions about how far biological limits can be stretched. The Trump administration has tried to lower beef prices by increasing imports, but this decision has angered ranchers, a loyal constituency for the president.
Data Harvest (formerly Graphic of the Week) is Investigate Midwest’s way of making complex agricultural data easy to understand. Through engaging graphics, charts, and maps, we break down key trends to help readers quickly grasp the forces shaping farming, food systems, and rural communities. Want us to explore other data trends? Let us know here.
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