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# Farm profits forecast to rise, but federal aid remains a big safety net
- URL: https://www.investigatemidwest.org/farm-profits-forecast-to-rise-but-federal-aid-remains-a-big-safety-net/
- Published: 2025-09-24T19:06:29.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-23T18:12:16.000Z
- Description: USDA projects higher farm income this year, but gains are largely driven by aid programs rather than stronger markets for crops or livestock.
- Author: Lauren Cross, Investigate Midwest
- Tags: Data Harvest, agricultural economy, American Relief Act, Brooke Rollins, cattle industry, corn prices, crop receipts, disaster payments, drought recovery, TP::Explainer, farm expenses, farm subsidies, federal aid, Glenn Thompson, hog prices, labor costs, livestock sales, net farm income, poultry market, soybean prices, USDA, wheat prices, #wp, #wp-post, #Import 2026-06-18 04:56

The latest forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture says net farm income [will reach $179.8 billion](https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/farm-sector-income-forecast?ref=investigatemidwest.org) in 2025, up 40% from last year.

On the surface, that sounds like a big rebound. In reality, most of that increase comes from federal disaster payments, not from stronger crop or livestock markets.

USDA says producers will see $40.5 billion in direct government payments this year, more than three times higher than in 2024\. Most of that total comes from the Biden-era American Relief Act of 2025, which set aside funds for supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance. [Nearly $35.2 billion](https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=4050&ref=investigatemidwest.org) is tied to covering losses from droughts and other natural disasters in 2023 and 2024.

Without that federal support, farm income would fall to $139.3 billion. Farmers earned $117.7 billion in 2024 without aid.

The split shows how shaky the farm economy can be. Combined receipts for corn, soybeans and wheat are forecast to fall $6.8 billion in total, the lowest level since 2007\. Livestock producers are seeing stronger returns thanks to tight supplies and high prices, but [American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall recently cautioned](https://www.fb.org/the-zipline/farm-income-forecast-exposes-concerning-trends?ref=investigatemidwest.org) that fewer than half of U.S. farmers raise livestock — meaning most producers aren’t benefiting.

Livestock sales are forecast to climb to $298.6 billion in 2025, which puts them more than $60 billion ahead of crop receipts. Cattle and calves account for the largest share, projected at nearly $130 billion, while hogs, broilers and eggs are also bringing in stronger returns after several difficult years, [according to USDA data](https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=4057&ref=investigatemidwest.org).

And while prices are sliding for key row crops, farmers are also being squeezed by rising expenses. Farmers are expected to spend $467.4 billion in 2025, about $12 billion more than last year. Livestock and poultry purchases are driving much of the increase, up 21.5%. Labor costs are also up 4.3%.

A closer look at the data shows that, while 2025 is forecasted above the 20-year average, the surge in federal aid is playing a significant role — and much of it compensating for disasters in the past two years. Without that safety net, farm profits would look far weaker.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins [told the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/0267b431-2ec9-4ca4-9d5c-5abf61f2b082?ref=investigatemidwest.org) on Sept. 17 that the Trump administration may consider using tariff revenues as farm aid. However, House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson, a Pennsylvania Republican, questioned the legality of using tariff revenue for farm aid.

According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/usda-considering-economic-aid-farmers-this-fall-says-secretary-2025-09-15/?ref=investigatemidwest.org), Rollins also said last month that the USDA is working with Congress and “closely monitoring markets daily to evaluate the amount of additional assistance that might be needed this fall."